Getting Students on Track for Graduation: Impact of the Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System after One Year

The national high school graduation rate reached its highest level in U.S. history—82 percent during the 2013/14 school year—but dropout remains a persistent problem. Early warning systems that use research-based warning signs to identify students at risk of dropping out of high school have emerged as one strategy for preventing high school dropout. This study examined the impact of one early warning system—the Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System (EWIMS)— on student and school outcomes after one year of implementation. EWIMS provides schools guidance and site-based support to implement a seven-step process, supported by use of an early warning data tool. The tool incorporates validated early warning indicators based on attendance, course performance, and behavior to flag students who are at risk of not graduating on time, and allows schools to assign students to interventions and monitor progress. The EWIMS model intends to help schools efficiently use data to identify at-risk students and provide targeted supports to prevent dropout.

To evaluate the impact of EWIMS, a cluster randomized controlled trial involving 73 schools in three Midwestern states and a total of 37,671 students in grades 9 and 10 was conducted. Thirty-seven schools were randomly assigned to implement EWIMS during the 2014/15 school year and thirty-six continued business as usual. The study documented the impact of EWIMS on binary student risk factors, including if students: (1) missed 10 percent or more of instructional time, (2) failed one or more courses, (3) earned a GPA of 2.0 or lower, (4) been suspended at least once, or (5) earned insufficient credits to graduate on-time.

Results of this study are forthcoming in early 2017, pending approval by the Department of Education. Preliminary findings show that the percentage of students who were chronically absent was lower in EWIMS schools (10%) than in control schools (14%). The percentage of students who failed one or more courses also was lower in EWIMS schools (21%) than in control schools (26%). However, EWIMS did not have an impact on low GPAs, suspensions, or credits earned. Implementation results also suggest that EWIMS was challenging for schools to implement.

This study provides rigorous evidence that even with limited implementation during the first year of adoption, using a comprehensive early warning system can reduce the percentage of students who are chronically absent or fail courses— two key indicators that student are at risk of dropping out of high school.