Session: Using Prevention Science to Ensure Appropriate Use of Predictive Analytics (Society for Prevention Research 26th Annual Meeting)

In many prevention and intervention program approaches, practitioners are using screening assessments to help inform service and treatment (intervention) efforts. These screening assessments are not always accurate, well-implemented nor perceived as useful by practitioners. Predictive Analytics is an empirical approach to develop screening assessment tools, alert systems and other practices to help direct resources and otherwise improve case decisions made in practice. Predictive Analytics most often rely on the use of existing system administrative data for development. These data often reflect disparities in resources and case decisions observed in practice. Given often observed unintended consequences of interventions, including surveillance affects, as well as geographic and ethnic disparities in service and system penetration decisions, Predictive Analytical tools developed and applied in practice must demonstrate effectiveness and equity in order to improve outcomes for children, youth and families.

The following papers outline the need for a theoretical framework to inform criteria and methods to evaluate the effectiveness of predictive analytics during the development, testing and implementation phases, and how the Prevention Science framework meets these needs. The first paper, Predictive Analytics within a Prevention Science Framework, defines Predictive Analytics and reviews recent examples to illustrate the questions for and context in which Predictive Analytics have been developed and tested. The objective of this first paper is to identify how the Prevention Science framework can inform research questions and evaluation criteria to help ensure the appropriateness and effectiveness of Predictive Analytics. The second paper, Methods for Ensuring Effective and Equitable Predictive Analytics, reviews imperative criteria and measures for evaluating Predictive Analytics and any screening assessment applied in practice to help inform prevention and intervention decisions. The third paper, Partnerships and Governance Needed to Help Ensure Appropriate Application of Predictive Analytic Models, outlines how the Prevention Science framework supports effective development and implementation of resulting tools, including system structures and evaluation efforts needed to sustain improved outcomes for children, youth and families.