Trajectories of Violent Behavior during Adolescence Among Males Living in Urban Neighborhoods

Introduction: Violence is pervasive in inner city neighborhoods and has become a major public health problem. It is estimated that 50-96% of urban youth have witnessed or experienced some form of violence in their community. Exposure to pervasive community violence can disrupt a child's psychological development and place them at increased risk for aggression, delinquency and other risk behaviors. All of these behaviors correlate with poor school engagement, risky sexual behavior, law enforcement exposure, and subsequent behavioral and emotional disorders in adulthood. To this end, we examine the effect of exposure to violence as well as other risk and protective factors on trajectories of violent behavior during adolescence in a cohort of males living in low-income urban neighborhoods.

Methods: Data are from a cohort study of 435 primarily Black males who were first sampled in childhood based on their residence in low-income neighborhoods in Baltimore and followed up annually. Latent class trajectory modeling was conducted to estimate trajectories of violent behavior from 6^th to 12^th grade. Multinomial logistic regression models evaluated factors in 6^th and 9^th grades predicting membership in trajectory groups. Logistic regression models examined the influence of group membership on high school graduation and criminal justice system involvement.

Results: Three groups of violent trajectories were identified: (1) non-violent (76%), (2) high school escalators (11%), and (3) early violent decliners (14%). Exposure to community violence (OR=2.59; 95%CI=1.05, 6.35), racism (OR=1.07; 95%CI=1.02, 1.14), and drinking frequency (OR=1.27; 95%CI=1.00, 1.60) in 9^th grade predicted escalation in high school. Exposure to violence (OR=5.11, 95%CI=1.76, 15.5), racism (OR=1.06; 95% CI=1.01, 1.12), and deviant peer affiliation (OR=1.12; 95%CI=1.03, 1.21) in 6^th grade predicted membership in the early violent decliner trajectory group relative to the non-violent group. Protective factors were not statistically significant. Youth in both violent trajectory groups were significantly less likely to graduate from high school on time and were more likely to have criminal justice system involvement.

Conclusions: Exposure to violence and racism were strong predictors of both violent behavior trajectories. The lack of significance for protective factors that might moderate the influence of exposure to these stressors highlights the need for further study so that effective interventions can be developed to reduce the cycle of violence in urban communities and the adverse adult outcomes that result.