Risky Drinking in Emerging Adults: A Prospective Examination of Predictors of Increased Drinking Versus Maturing out

Introduction. Emerging adulthood (ages 18-25) is a developmental period marked by risky substance use behavior. For many, this includes illegal underage drinking and experimental use of other drugs. While some reports suggest a natural “maturing out” of these risky behaviors, there are gaps in the understanding about for whom and when this occurs. The current research attempted to address these gaps by utilizing a rigorous design (multi-site longitudinal diverse sample of college students and their parents) and cutting-edge latent transition analyses, to examine questions about for whom and when does maturing out occur.

Method. College students and their parents were assessed on alcohol use and psychosocial constructs using reliable and valid questionnaires during the fall semesters of the first 3 years of college at 3 large and diverse universities (N = 1,432). Retention was high (85.7%). Latent transition analyses (LTA) were conducted to examine drinker classes, stability of classes over time, and transitions between classes. Sex differences and psychosocial constructs measured at year 1 were examined as predictors of transitions into the riskiest drinking classes at subsequent years.

Results. A summary of the results revealed five drinking classes: 1) Non-drinkers–unlikely to drink, 2) Weekend Light Drinkers– likely to only drink on weekends and not have BAC > 0.08, 3) Weekend Heavy Episodic Drinkers– likely only drink on weekends, have BAC > 0.08, 4) Occasional Heavy Episodic Drinkers– do not usually drink but engage in heavy episodic drinking when they do, and 5) Heavy Drinkers– likely to drink during the week and weekend and have a BAC >0.08. Second, the latent classes themselves did not change across the study, but more individuals transitioned into the higher risk classes than the lower risk classes. Third, year 1 positive expectancies, peer descriptive norms, attitudes, drinker image and sex were positively associated with transitioning to the Heavy Drinker class at later years. 

Conclusion. The concept of “maturing out” remains a complicated process. The current study provides evidence that more students are increasing, rather than decreasing risky drinking by their 3rd year of college. Results also suggest that psychosocial influences at the beginning of college are associated with less, rather than greater maturing out drinking tendencies. The findings are discussed with respect to the need for parent-based prevention efforts to modify this problematic trend.