Session: System Dynamics Applications to Health Research, Practice, and Policy (Society for Prevention Research 24th Annual Meeting)

SESSION INTRODUCTION: This symposium presents a variety of applications of system dynamics modeling. System dynamics is a simulation method that uses principles from engineering, and while it was developed for business and management applications, in recent years it has expanded to health and social applications. System dynamics can be a valuable supplement to traditional analytic methods for several reasons. First, while many areas of prevention research are limited to observational data, the simulation framework of system dynamics can test a system of hypothesized causes. Second, once a model is successful at replicating the behavior-over-time of interest, policies and interventions can be tested within the simulation framework without the ethical concerns present in real-world settings. Third, simulation results are many orders faster and less expensive than real-world experiments or decisions. This symposium presents four diverse areas of research from different researchers and institutions that utilize system dynamics modeling to examine questions related to health research, practice, and/or policy.

The first poster, "System Dynamics Modeling of Smoking Policies and Youth Smoking in North Dakota," models the system of causes of smoking initiation and progression among youth, and is calibrated to replicate actual trends in smoking behavior over the last 20 years. Three policies are tested and evaluated within this framework.

The second poster, "Modeling Population Dynamics Using Birth Cohorts," presents a novel approach to modeling population health over time, in particular obesity and cancer. To date, such system dynamics modeling has not taken into account birth cohorts and time-varying risk factors; thus, this method offers a substantial advantage in such applications.

The third poster, "Barriers to Primary Care Access for Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Women: A System Dynamics Approach," uses simulations to examine how the Medicaid expansion in the Affordable Care Act impacts screenings and primary care visits among socio-economically disadvantaged women.

The fourth poster, "System Dynamics Model of Antibiotic Resistance," examines the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in a simulation framework, and evaluates several potential policies aimed at reducing this problem.

There will be no discussant for this symposium, but at the conclusion of the poster presentation, the chair will moderate discussion between the audience and the presenters.