Exploring the Role of Alcohol Use Expectancies in the Relationship Between Mexican Youths' Intentions to Migrate to the US and Alcohol Use

Introduction: From 2002 to 2012, alcohol use prevalence among Mexican youth increased 12.4%. This increase may be attributed, in part, to Mexican youth’s increased contact with the US through media. Youth who intend to migrate may pre-acculturate, adapting more permissive American substance use norms, prior to their arrival in the US. According to Ajzen’s (1999) theory of planned behavior, the process of pre-acculturation may impact Mexican youth’s alcohol use by influencing their alcohol use expectancies (the belief that alcohol use has positive outcomes) and intention to use alcohol. Studies have found that intentions to migrate are positively associated to alcohol use among Mexican youth. However, the role of expectancies and intentions (features of cultural norms) in the relationship between intentions to migrate and alcohol use remains unknown. This study fills this gap by testing the indirect pathways between intentions to migrate and alcohol use via alcohol use expectancies and intentions.

Method: To test these pathways, we used data collected as part of a pilot study conducted with youth (12-17) living in Jalisco-Mexico (N = 420). Surveys were conducted three times at fourteen-month intervals (T1, T2, T3). Participants’ intentions to migrate and alcohol use expectancies (e.g. “Drinking alcohol makes parties more fun.”) were assessed at T1,, alcohol use intentions (e.g. “If you had an opportunity, would you use alcohol?”) at T2, and alcohol use was assessed at T3. To test the proposed indirect pathways, structural equation models (SEM) were estimated in Mplus. Our models controlled for gender, intervention condition, parents’ education, alcohol use intentions, and alcohol use at time one.

Results: The parameter estimates indicated a good model fit (X² (52) = 76.05, p < .05; CFI = .99; TLI = .99; RMSEA = .03). A significant positive association was found between Mexican youth’s intentions to migrate and alcohol use expectancies, β (SE) = .25 (.05), p < .001. It was also found that alcohol use expectancies was positively associated with alcohol use intentions, β (SE) = .66 (.19), p < .001.In addition, there was a positive association between alcohol use intentions and alcohol use  β (SE)= .31 (.06), p < .001. There was also a significant indirect pathway between intentions to migrate and alcohol use through alcohol use expectancies and intentions, β (SE) = .05 (.02), p < .001).

Conclusion: This study suggests that youth who intend to migrate may be at increased risk for alcohol use. The results indicated that this risk might be partly attributed to more permissive alcohol use expectancies and intentions, which is consistent with the pre-acculturation hypothesis. Prevention efforts in Mexico may be strengthened by targeting youth intending to migrate and helping them critically explore their beliefs about alcohol use and its connection to American substance use norms.