Adolescent Substance Misuse and School Failure Mediate the Influence of Childhood Cumulative Risk on Criminal Behavior

Introduction: Children exposed to multiple environmental and psychological risk factors are more likely to become persistent offenders. Some perspectives assume a direct pathway from childhood adversity and neuropsychological deficits to criminality, while others treat these processes as contingent on life course processes. This research examined whether the effect of childhood cumulative risk (CCR) on criminal behavior is mediated by two modifiable outcomes – substance misuse and school failure, independent of co-occurring antisociality. 

Methods: This study was a secondary data analysis of the 1986 Northern Finland Birth Cohort Study. Participants were 5,743 individuals born in Finland. Using data from administrative records and multi-informant surveys, participants were followed from the prenatal period through ages 19-20. CCR was measured as an additive score consisting of 20 dichotomized items covering socioeconomic, familial, and psychological domains of risk. To assess the mediating role of school failure and substance misuse, the model included adolescent problem behavior as the third mediator to estimate the pathways related to substance misuse and schooling net of the individuals’ general antisocial tendencies. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the hypothesized paths.

Results: Results show that CCR is associated with higher risk of receiving a criminal conviction indirectly via each of the three pathways. First, CCR is associated with a higher probability of educational failure in adolescence (β=.32, p<.001), which in turn is associated with a higher probability of criminal conviction (β=.14, p<.001). Second, CCR is positively associated with adolescent problem behavior (β=.16, p<.001), which is associated with a higher probability of conviction (β=.15, p<.001). Third, CCR is associated with a higher probability adolescent substance use (β=.21, p<.001), which predicts a higher likelihood of conviction (β=.22, p<.001). The direct effect of CCR on conviction risk was not significant (β=.03, p >.05). Results from multiple-group SEM indicate these pathways are not gender specific but operate the same for males and females. 

Conclusions: Results show that adolescent substance misuse and school failure can be understood as influential stepping stones to criminal behavior in vulnerable children exposed to early adversity, and that these effects are independent of general antisocial tendencies. Effective interventions to reduce substance misuse and school failure have the potential to interrupt criminal careers among youth exposed to multiple prenatal and early childhood risk factors.