Reciprocal Effects of Future Expectations and Risk Behavior Among Low-Income African American and Latino Youth

Purpose: Adolescents living in low-income urban centers, especially young men of color, report expectations of early death at disproportionately high rates compared to youth who are White and of higher socioeconomic status (Duke, Skay, Pettingell & Borowsky, 2009). Negative future expectations, including survival-based fears, have been associated with health risk behaviors (Gomez, Thompson, & Barczyk, 2010; Peters, et. al., 2005), yet cross-sectional studies limit understanding of how this relationship unfolds over time. This presentation addresses this gap, testing for theorized patterns of a mutually-reinforcing relationships between negative future expectations and risk behaviors.

Methods: Data are drawn from four waves (W2 N=287, W3 N=248, W4 N=254,W5 N=259) of the Chicago Youth Development Study, a longitudinal prospective cohort study drawn from 17 public schools of risk of school failure, antisocial behavior and violence among inner-city African American (53.7%) and Latino (42.7%) young men. 62% of participants live in single-parent homes, 47.6% report family income below $10,000/year, and 73.5% below $20,000. Categorical autoregressive cross-lagged structural models were used to simultaneously address the reciprocal effects of future expectations (positive expectations and threats to safety) with two risk behaviors: substance use and delinquent involvement from mean ages 13-17 years.

Results: Future expectations convey significant effects on youth substance use and involvement in delinquent behavior. The first model tests the relationship between future expectations and substance use. Model fit indices were strong: χ²= 714.47(526), p=0.000, RMSEA=0.03, CFI=0.97, TLI=0.97. In the second model, the relationship between future expectations and delinquency were examined. Again, model fit indices were strong: χ² was 698.51 (522), p<0.000, CFI = 0.97, TLI = 0.97 and the RMSEA = 0.03. Maternal income, race, and youth depression at wave 1 were controlled for in each model. Significant cross-lag relationships were evidenced between negative future orientation and increased substance use between the ages of thirteen and eighteen; whereas negative future orientation at thirteen years predicts involvement in delinquency at the next time point, which in turn decreased positive orientation and increased involvement in delinquency. This negative reinforcing cycle continues across adolescence.

Implications: Findings support the reciprocal effects hypothesis of a negative reinforcing cycle in the relationship between future expectations and risk behavior. The enduring nature of this relationship underscores the importance of future expectations as a potential intervention target to reduce health risk behaviors, and subsequent negative outcomes, among low-income minority youth.