A Latent Class Analysis of Early Behavioral Risk Factors Associated with Increased Alcohol-Related Problems in College

Objective: Previous work has identified a particularly high-risk subset of college student drinkers who experience multiple and repeated consequences (MRC group). This group represents 25% of drinkers, yet they experience 50% of the reported alcohol-related consequences. In order to develop a brief multidimensional screening tool and to target interventions for this at-risk group, the current study examined 1) latent classes of pre-college risky drinking behaviors (e.g., early age of onset, middle and high school drinking, frequently getting drunk and increased numbers of unique consequences experienced in high school); and 2) the association between latent class membership and MRC group membership during the first semester of college. Method: A random sample of college student drinkers (n = 2021; 56% female) from a large, northeastern university completed a web-based survey during their first semester of college. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify unique constellations of pre-college risk behaviors that might be differentially associated with MRC group membership in college. Results: LCA revealed a four-class solution: 1) a Minimal Risk group (55%; n = 1104) who did not engage in any pre-college risk behaviors; 2) a Late Onset Risk group (32%; n = 645) who engaged in weekend drinking, got drunk nine or more times, and experienced six or more unique consequences in their senior year of high school; 3) an Early Onset, Continued Risk group (10%; n = 210) who engaged in heavy high school drinking and also endorsed middle school drinking and an early age of onset (before age 15); and 4) an Early Onset, Limited Risk group (3%; n = 62) who only endorsed early age of onset and middle school drinking behavior. Members of the Late Onset Risk and the Early Onset, Continued Risk groups were seven and ten times more likely to be in the MRC group during their first year of college, respectively, relative to the Minimal Risk group. Relative to the Early Onset, Continued Risk group, all other groups had significantly decreased odds of MRC group membership. Discussion: Findings suggest MRC group risk behaviors begin in high school, or earlier, supporting the need for earlier screening and intervention. Further, some early risk behaviors may be more useful for screening, relative to others. Future work should examine the utility of brief multidimensional screening tools to identify those who may be at greatest risk for MRC group membership in college.