Method: Longitudinal data were obtained from 979 rural youth and their parents involved in large scale effectiveness trial of substance use preventive interventions. Long-term trends of parental knowledge from Grade 6-8 (initial level and rate of change), and lability of the remaining fluctuations (intraindividual standard deviation) were examined as potential predictors of adolescent's delinquency and substance use (alcohol use, tobacco use, substance use initiation) in Grade 9. Long-term trends and lability were obtained from a growth curve model of knowledge from Grade 6-8 (four waves of data, youth report). Control variables include gender, dual biological marital status, intervention condition, parent education and initial levels of the outcome variables.
Result: Lability in knowledge was significantly related to all of our indicators of substance use. Even after controlling for the levels and systematic trends in knowledge, higher lability in knowledge (e.g., more fluctuations) between Grade 6 and 8 was associated with higher levels of substance use initiation and higher levels of tobacco and alcohol use in Grade 9. No effects were found for delinquency.
Discussion: Findings suggest that intra-individual lability, or fluctuations in knowledge, may be an important risk factor for early adolescent substance use. Family-based interventions may be most effective if they teach parents to gradually and consistently reduce family management strategies in a manner that promotes adolescent autonomy and child disclosure. The discussion will focus on mechanisms that may link lability to substance use and intervention implications.