Childhood and Adolescent Predictors of Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood and Adulthood: General and Alcohol-Specific Cumulative Risk Factors in Family, Peer, and School Contexts

Life course developmental and ecological theories suggest that factors influencing the emergence of alcohol problems in adulthood are rooted in multiple ecological contexts in childhood and adolescence. Substantial evidence from longitudinal research has identified significant experiences in a child’s family, peer group, school and community contexts that predict adolescent alcohol problems. However, to date, most of the research examining the influence of early environment on adult alcohol problems has focused only on the family. Furthermore, these studies have tended to focus on young adult alcohol problems, and less is known about the early predictors of alcohol problems later in adulthood. Thus, the present study addresses the following primary question: Do general and alcohol-specific influences in family, peer, and school contexts differentially predict alcohol problems at the transition to adulthood (age 21) versus later in adulthood (age 33)?

Method. Data are drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal panel following a gender balanced, multiethnic sample of youths drawn from 18 elementary schools serving higher crime neighborhoods of Seattle. The panel was constituted when the 808 participants were in the 5th grade in 1985. Analyses presented here include data collected during late childhood (age 10), adolescence (ages 11 to 18), young adulthood (age 21), and adulthood (age 33). Alcohol problems in young adulthood (age 21) and adulthood (age 33) include heavy episodic drinking and alcohol use disorder. Each ecological domain and effects of general and alcohol specific cumulative risk factors on two separate alcohol problem measures in young adulthood and adulthood employed multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results. Child and adolescent predictors of young adult alcohol problems differed from those that predicted alcohol problems at age 33. Young adult (age 21) alcohol problems were most consistently predicted by earlier alcohol specific environments and general deviant peer influence, but not by general family functioning. However, later adult (age 33) alcohol problems were most consistently predicted by general family functioning in adolescence, and not by early alcohol specific environments. 

Conclusions. Study findings suggest that not only alcohol-specific risk factors but also general negative risk factors are associated with adult alcohol problems, indicating that prevention efforts narrowly targeted at alcohol problems among adolescents may not be effective in reducing alcohol problems later in one’s adulthood. Prevention efforts should involve components designed to reduce alcohol-specific risk and components to improve general peer and family environments during childhood and adolescence.