Is Dropping Out Contagious? the Influence of Peers in Adolescence

Introduction: Graduating from high school is an important milestone for many adolescents. However, a smaller, yet significant, portion of the adolescent population will drop out of school before graduation (NCES, 2010). The reasons for dropping out of school are numerous and include factors, such as poor academic achievement (Freudenberg & Ruglis, 2007). However, peers may be especially influential.  In fact, in Nelson and DeBacker’s (2008) study of middle and high school students, results indicate that peer climate and youths’ perception of their best friend’s beliefs explained a significant portion of the variance in youths’ academic motivation. Additionally, research has found that adolescents who associate with deviant peers are less likely to complete school (Fergusson & Horwood, 1998). Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between academic achievement and anticipated likelihood of graduation, as moderated by peer dropout prevalence.

Method: Data from eighth (n = 5222) and tenth grade students (n = 5276), as part of the Monitoring the Future study (Johnston, Bachman, O’Malley, & Schulenberg, 2010) was utilized for the current study.  Participants in 8^th grade were predominately White (62%), followed by Hispanic (21%), and then Black (17%). Participants were evenly divided in terms of sex with 49.1% male. Participants in 10^th grade were comparable, including 71.4% White, 16.4% Hispanic, and 12.2% Black, with 48.6% male.

Results: Hierarchical regression analyses were used to examine the role of participants’ academic grades on predicting participants’ anticipated graduation from high school, as well as prevalence of peer drop out. Peer school dropout prevalence was used as a moderating variable of the relationship between grades and likelihood of graduating from high school. Participants’ sex, race, and parents’ education level were statistically controlled for. Results revealed that the overall model of anticipated likelihood of high school graduation for 8^th grade students was statistically significant, F(7, 4011)= 89.168, p<.001, R²= .135, as well as 10^th grade students, F(7, 4302)= 107.545, p<.001, R²= .149.  Moderation analyses reveal that the effect of academic grades on likelihood of graduation depends upon youths’ association with peers who had dropped out of school (p < .05) for both 8^th and 10^th grade students.

Conclusion: Dropping out of school carries dismal consequences and understanding how peer networks influence youths’ attitudes may offer new insights for dropout prevention. Specifically, youth with poor grades and high prevalence of peer drop out are most at risk. Future research examining the potential for peer network interventions is needed.